Pound slips after poll suggests hung parliament

The latest modeling indicates that the Conservatives might lose as many as 20 seats of the 330 it now holds while the Labour Party might gain as many as 30 seats.

There are more Labour seats in the North and the Midlands than elsewhere, and so this pattern could deliver the Prime Minister extra vital seats.

However, Pound exchange rates bounced back yesterday, rising more than 1% from the lows against the Australian and New Zealand Dollars, whilst edging back towards 1.15 versus the Euro.

The Conservatives had a lead of about 20 points over Labor in polls conducted in late April, but that has dropped to as little as five points in some recent polls.

The Tories' lead has been slashed in the latest poll putting Prime Minister Theresa May just three points ahead of Jeremy Corbyn.

Theresa May's first major task as prime minister was to negotiate Brexit, but her party only had a small majority in Parliament.

The polling company's seat projection study for the Times has resulted in a constituency-by-constituency estimate, which indicates what could happen on a good night and bad night for the Conservatives.

When gains and losses for other parties are factored in, the modeling suggests the Conservative Party's tally could be 16 seats below the 326 seats required to be able to govern alone, leading to a "hung parliament".

Iran will continue missile programme, says Rouhani
President Hassan Rouhani defeated his conservative rival Ebrahim Raisi - by a lot - in Iran's presidential elections on May 19. He called Trump's meeting with Saudi leaders "just a show" and declared it would not "have any political and practical value".

Another interesting debate is how the FTSE 100 trades if we see a Conservative majority, which as I say is still the likely scenario priced by markets.

But much hangs on turnout, with the estimated Tory majority falling to 40 seats if all of those who voted in the 2016 European Union referendum cast their ballots, and rising to 78 if only those who voted in 2015 take part.

The pollster's MRP model is based on the fact that people with similar characteristics tend to vote similarly, but not identically, regardless of where they live.

The UK currency plunged in the wake of a YouGov poll showing Mrs May's once commanding lead had been wiped out, and the Conservatives would fall short of the required seats for an overall majority.

With just a matter of days until voters hit the polls, the investment world has begun to weigh up what a weak Tory result might mean for portfolios.

Shakespeare said the figures could change dramatically before June 8.

To some, this reflects a general scepticism with the YouGov analysis - and it's certainly true that most other polls still give the Conservatives a sizeable lead.

Ukip will be discussing health policy in London, while north of the border in Scotland Nicola Sturgeon will be campaigning for the SNP in Edinburgh, while Labour and the Lib Dems will also be bidding to win votes in the city.


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